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Bull Trader USA

There really is a profit windfall for oil companies

President Joe Biden blasted oil companies Monday, suggesting he could even support a windfall profits tax. He’s right about one thing: The oil industry has been raking in impressive profits. Exxon Mobil , for example, will likely more than double its profits this year , from $5.38 per share in 2021 to an estimated $13.56 in 2022. Even in the fourth quarter, when profit gains are expected to be lower than earlier in the year because oil prices had already been elevated at this time last year, the gains should still be high. Q4 2022 est. vs. year-ago earnings Exxon Mobil 54% Chevron 68% Marathon Petroleum 259% Valero Energy 168% ConocoPhillips 49% Source: Refinitiv Here’s another way you can tell oil companies are producing outsized profits. Energy companies represent only 5% of the market capitalization of the S & P 500 , but made up 12% of the group’s profits in the third quarter. S & P Energy (% of S & P 500) Profits: 12% Market cap: 5% That is rather unusual. The second largest sector, health care, is about evenly matched between profits and market cap. S & P Health Care (% of S & P 500) Profits: 15% Market cap: 15% The story is the same with financials, communication services, industrials and consumer staples. The market cap and the contribution to profits are about equal. Technology is in the opposite situation. The market cap is larger than its profit contribution. Indeed, the deceleration in earnings is one reason the tech sector has underperformed the S & P this year. S & P Technology (% of S & P 500) Profits: 20% Market cap: 26%

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